The Premier League season is just around the corner and there is no question as to who are favourites to hold aloft the trophy come May. Four titles in the last five years, five in the last ten, twelve since Sky invented football in 1992 and nineteen in total; let’s face it, it would be a brave step to bet against Manchester United making it twenty this season.
But from where might their main challenge come? Arsenal, who seem unable to realise that calling Sébastien Squillaci a defender breaches the Trade Descriptions Act? Chelsea, whose squad now has an average age of 76? Liverpool, who are busy buying the best mediocre British talent that the Premier League has to offer? Or perhaps Man City, who have a striker who is genuinely as mad as a box of frogs and still, despite all the evidence against his ‘talent’ continue to employ Joleon Lescott?
The fact is that this may be one of the most difficult Premier League races to call in quite a while. Over the past five years, the gap between the top four has got smaller and there are four teams who will, in their own minds at least, believe they have a realistic shot at the prize.
Between 2001 and 2006 the average gap from 1st to 4th place was a fairly sizeable twenty-four points. In the subsequent five years, that has narrowed to just fifteen and a half points. As United have failed to replace the ‘superstar’ element of their side and as Chelsea’s squad gets closer and closer to pensionable age, so the likes of Manchester City and Tottenham have been able to draw themselves closer.
Arsenal fans might have hoped that the apparent downturn in the fortunes of both United and Chelsea would have provided them with the opportunity for their first league title since 2004. The eighty points that United amassed in 2010-11 was the lowest winning total since 2000-01, when again the men from Old Trafford claimed the spoils. The Gunners however, dropped seven points and one place on their previous season’s efforts and rarely, if ever, looked like mounting a serious challenge.
The prospects of that record improving by enough to be in the mix this season seem bleak as well. Once again the summer has been plagued by the Cesc saga, and with the doubts over Samir Nasri thrown in as well, Arsenal seem more concerned with keeping players than signing them. Ivorian forward Gervinho will undoubtedly prove an excellent and at £10.6M, a bargain addition but their defence remains as questionable as ever. Phil Jagielka, Gary Cahill and Scott Dann have all been linked to the Emirates but until Arsène Wenger dusts off the chequebook and brings at least one of them in, Arsenal are likely to remain out of the title picture.
Another side yet to make waves in the transfer market when arguably they have serious need to, is Chelsea. The arrival of André Villas-Boas was expected to be followed by a wave of new signings. Javier Pastore, Luka Modrić, Hulk, Falcao, Romelu Lukaku have all been linked but none have arrived. Only Belgian goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois – then immediately loaned to Atlético Madrid – and Barcelona youngster Oriol Romeu have been added to the ranks of an ageing squad.
Perhaps the key to Chelsea’s challenge is their ability to extract a better strike rate than the one goal in fourteen games that Fernando Torres managed after his move last season. There is no doubt that the Spaniard remains a supremely talented striker but Villas-Boas and his coaches need to figure out how to access the 2008 version of the front-man and not the 2010 perma-sulk.
Tottenham’s day in the sun is almost certainly over; a challenge for the top four could be on the cards but anything more is a fantasy. They, like Arsenal, have been more concerned with hanging onto their prize asset this summer than with adding to the squad. Daniel Levy and Harry Redknapp see retaining the services of Modrić as a statement of intent that they are no longer a selling club, but the expectation remains that he will be clad in Chelsea blue before September arrives.
Liverpool owner John W Henry went on record this week, trying to manage expectations after a summer of spending. The man from Illinois is adamant that a title challenge remains unlikely from Anfield and that regaining a place in the top four must be their primary goal for the season. It is sensible talk from Henry. Liverpool do have a better balance and depth to their squad than last season, but their lack of European football has certainly hurt in attracting the very top level of players.
The main challenge to United’s throne is, in my view, likely to come from their closest neighbours. For a side that was never in the title race last season and that still look set to lose their best player before the transfer window closes, that may seem a little far fetched but City’s rise is inexorable. Buoyed by the addition of Champions League football, they have been able to attract Gaël Clichy from Arsenal – an improvement upon the flaky talents of Aleksandar Kolarov – and in Sergio Agüero they have effectively replaced Carlos Tévez with a man who could be even better.
With David Silva – whose impact on the Premier League in his début season was woefully underrated – liable to only get better and the best yet to come from the likes of Edin Džeko and Mario Balotelli, City look like a phenomenon waiting to happen. Doubts perhaps remain over whether Roberto Mancini will unshackle his players from their at times too rigid system. City scored only sixty goals last season, whilst the average scored by the title winners over the past ten years stands at eighty-two – but if he does release his players then the rest of the league could be in serious danger.
But what of the champions themselves? The retirement of Edwin van der Sar presented a significant problem, and in David de Gea, Alex Ferguson has brought in one of the best young goalkeepers in the game. The Spaniard is unlikely to reach Van Der Sar’s heights from the very start of his United career however and he may be something potentially exploited by their rivals.
The signing of Phil Jones from Blackburn provides even greater depth to what was already a strong defensive unit and the addition of Ashley Young gives them even more pace and trickery up front. The sight of Young cutting in from the left with Evra overlapping from full back should be a regular one at Old Trafford this season, and one that could prove vital.
There remains speculation that United will bring in Wesley Sneijder from Internazionale as their final deal of the summer. While a deeper lying passer of the ball, someone such as Modrić, may seem the more natural fit for United’s side, there is no doubt that Sneijder is an excellent player. A front four consisting of Antonio Valencia, Sneijder, Young and Wayne Rooney is a positively frightening combination of pace and movement.
United remain my favourites for the title, while I would certainly not rule out City bridging the nine point gap from last season. I think that Ferguson’s men will have just too much for them and will be celebrating another landmark title. Who makes up the rest of the top four is still up for grabs. It’s difficult to see both Chelsea and Arsenal missing out. To be honest, they’re both now so ingrained in the top four that it’s difficult to see either missing out. There will be a concerted attack from both Liverpool and Tottenham but whether it will be enough remains to be seen.
