Statistics System
Before we go into a deeper analysis, let's start with a purely statistical analysis. This system takes into account how a team reacts, psychologically speaking, after suffering a big defeat.
As shown in a recent study by a betting magazine, a team that goes through a big loss, in 85% of the cases, wins or draws in the next match.
Thus, a good tip is to look for some team that has recently experienced some big defeat, especially in the last game (in particular, in this case, it is interesting to look for a team that has lost by at least 3 goals) and betting on their reaction in the next game.
However, this type of strategy does not always apply: it is not valid, for example, in the case of teams that are bottom of the league, where they may still have many losses ahead of them. It is also interesting to exclude those teams that are going through a bad phase, for example a team that usually ranks between the middle positions of the league table, but at the moment is not managing to stay there. In general, it is also good to avoid all specific situations that could slow down a reaction of team pride after a serious defeat.
Of course, this same logic cannot be used when two teams that have experienced recent defeats meet: in that case, it will be quite difficult to predict which of the two will have a better chance of reacting.
After finding a match with a team that fits the aforementioned criteria, the bettor should opt for the double chance" system, betting on the win and the draw of the team that is recovering from the bad game.
If we do a quick search on the results of a team that usually ranks between the middle and the top of the table, like Genoa during 2010, we can see that on January 6, 2010, the team lost 5-2 to Milan. In the next match, which took place on January 10, Genoa faced Catania at home, and achieved a victory. The Genoa-Catania match meets our requirements: our goal is at least one goal, and as it turned out, the home team won 2-0. This clearly cannot be taken as an absolute example, but often determination and mentality really make the difference on the field.
